Rémi Le Bailly: Hello everyone. It’s time for our Monday interview. I am very pleased to see you again at this weekly meeting on the stock market and investments. The session is quiet today, as often (always?) When Wall Street is closed.
Etienne: Hello, Mr. Le Bailly, is it too early for a moderate return to the stock market given the peak of inflation that seems to have been reached in the United States? What are 4 or 5 stocks that you would include in your portfolio today due to high volatility? Thanks in advance.
The Paris Stock Exchange recovered well after Wall Street last week and the Cac 40 index is still gaining ground today. The index returns to 6,500 points for the first time in a month.
That means I’m not sure it means a return to a sustainable bull market. Last week’s progress corresponds more to a rebound after a sharp decline (especially in the United States) than a reversal of the trend. Although inflation in the United States no longer seems to be accelerating, it remains strong and appears to persist. In Europe, figures released today (8.7% in one year in Germany and Spain) do not reflect any slowdown.
It is true that improving the health situation in China is good news that may allow the indices to go a little higher, but I do not think that the Cac 40 will be able to overcome the graphics resistance, which is at 6,630 points. The market should thus continue to develop between 6,200 and 6,650 points, as has been the case for several weeks. So we are more at the top of this fluctuation band, which doesn’t encourage me much to strengthen my position. In the current area, I would tend to sell a little.
To talk a little about values, I think that the “sleeping beauties” (Orange, Sanofi, TotalEnergies, etc.) that we talked about in the weekly a few weeks ago are still attractive in the current context. Instead, they fell last week as the market recovery benefited more from luxury and cyclical influences. Other high-yield stocks like Axa, Veolia or Stellantis may be worth a try.
Remy08: Hello, I wanted to know your opinion on luxury companies, especially LVMH, which has dropped significantly in the last two months. However, I found that it still has many assets, including a share repurchase program. I don’t understand why it doesn’t go up. Good for you.
Yes, luxury has fallen a lot because of China and has risen for a few days, especially today due to the improved health situation in that country. As I have said several times, the context of rising interest rates is not favorable for growth stocks, and therefore for luxury stocks. Therefore, I think that other sectors are likely to be given priority in the short term.
On the other hand, the medium-term vision is a sector that therefore maintains very good prospects. In five years, luxury stocks will be significantly higher than they are today, I am convinced of that, but in one year’s time this is not necessarily the sector that should be at stake. Finally, I remind youInvest has not provided advice on LVMH since thenInvest is a subsidiary of a luxury group.
Kimmo: Hello, Mr. Le Bailly, regarding Saint-Gobain, what would you advise me to sell or wait for? Despite the “so-called” acceleration of growth, the price is constantly falling: in January 2022 it was 67 euros and today 55 euros. What do you think of this solid group that can’t stand out? Is it a management problem because markets exist? I’m counting on your always good analysis, thank you. Warmly.
Saint-Gobain has fallen more or less like the market since the beginning of the year after the great year of 2021 (the fifth largest increase in the index with a profit of 65%). The overall performance remains very correct. I would even be inclined to believe that management is doing quite well with a relatively dynamic asset management policy. In addition, the group still seems to believe in its ability to pass on a sharp increase in costs, especially raw material costs, to its sales prices.
Finally, in the long run, the prospects for thermal renovation are very favorable. I therefore recommend that you keep your titles.
RAZATBACK: Hello, are you interested in watching the restructuring of the galaxy of Mr. Vincent Bollor, I would like to know which of his participations is better to stand on so that you can benefit from future convergence movements? (Vivendi? Bolloré? Financière de l’Odet? Anyone else?) Thank you in advance.
If there is a complete restructuring of the group’s organizational chart, it is better to target the leading companies, as they accumulate those discounts. In this case, it is the Financière de l’Odet, but since the beginning of the year, the shares have performed worse than Bolloré, which has benefited from the announcement of the sale of its transport and logistics in Africa.
It is also possible that the operation will be performed in two phases. First in Bolloré and then in Odet. So it is not easy to decide. I’d say you have to bet on Odeta first and also put a few balls on Bolloré.
Papanoel: Hello Mr. Le Bailly, can you explain the difference between the coupon and the partial depreciation (for example for Klépierre or ABC Arbitrage) during this dividend distribution period? Thank you and have a nice day.
I’m not 100% sure, but I think the difference comes from the origin of the dividend. Klépierre cannot pay the dividend as such because, as such, it has no divisible result. He must therefore deduct the amounts from the premium. This explains the different name.
land42: Hello, Mr. Le Bailly, has the upper and lower limits of the limited bonus certificate FRBNPP03DD68 changed since the capital increase of Air France-KLM? Thanks.
Yes, in the event of a capital increase, the limits are adjusted to take this operation into account.
JPMarkan: Hello, it can be difficult to know whether to proceed with the takeover bid, when most of the capital is divided among many small owners, because if this action fails, it remains stated. Also, once a takeover bid has been opened, how can you know the percentage and number of shares offered for takeover day after day?
It is always a difficult choice. The easiest way is to bring an offer, but if the price is not good enough, it may be better to keep it.
This option is not without risk. A general market decline can cause a stock to fall below the offer price. In another scenario, the stock volume decreases and the life of the stock in the stock market is less lively and the stock declines. However, the limit for running a download offer is now set at 90%. This means that if this limit is not reached, enough shareholders have rejected the offer. Among them are often funds that also felt that the price was not high enough.
They associate and sometimes negotiate a bid increase with the company that triggered the takeover bid. But this is not always the case. In other cases, the security remains listed for several years before the majority shareholder’s company makes a new offer at a much higher price.
In short, there is no exact rule. That is why we decide on operations on a case-by-case basis. Finally, to be complete, it is not possible, as far as I know, to know the number of titles added from day to day.
BOURVIL: Hello, I’m tempted to buy the US Nasdaq 100, but the exchange rate risk is currently very high with a very strong dollar weakening. The simulation of Amazon’s stock bought today, which would take 20% and hold it until the euro / dollar rises to 1.20 to resell it, is disastrous and would allow a capital gain of barely 8% due to the dollar’s decline. So is the game worth the candle? Is it better to play ETFs in this case?
You’re right, the performance of indices and stocks is very different when we think in euros or dollars. Therefore, if you want to bet on American techno as a whole, it may be more advantageous to do so through exchange rate hedged ETFs (called “hedged”). Major ETF issuers offer such products on major indices and especially on Nasdaq.
On the other hand, if you want to enjoy the fall of great techno, it is better to buy it right away. The volatility of these securities is such that if your expectations are good, it should largely cover the adverse monetary effect.
Gilbert: Hello Remi, I would like to repeat my question from last week, I understand very well that you cannot process all the requests. What do you think of the Worldline outlook? Where is the sale of a payment terminal branch approaching at the beginning of the year? Thank you very much for your opinion.
The quarterly figures were quite reassuring and the company maintained its annual targets. The sale of Apollo terminals should be completed in the second half. However, the company lost its “star” status for more than a year. After a series of disappointments, it must convince investors that the future will be better. We buy, but it’s a value that has a “joker” side. For me, this is another line that can be played for a possible “recovery” of the stock market.
It’s almost 5:20 p.m. It’s time to leave us. You’ll find Denis Lantoin next week. Please note that due to Pentecost Monday, the deadline is set for Tuesday 16:00. Have a good week.