Paris Stock Exchange: Dead calm for rise?

Paris Stock Exchange: Dead calm for rise?


While you sleep, you lucky ones, I find myself in front of my blank page, because one day someone decided that the Euronext markets would be open for the Ascension. The news in Europe will not be too dense this morning, but the United States needs to be bored. First, the publication of the “minutes” of the last meeting of the Fed. The report confirms that the institution is now well populated in its inflation-bearing Godzilla costume. The sound of the document was even rated by commentators as a bit more militant than expected, but paradoxically it did not result in the usual pathos of an investor who does hara-kiri because the central bank is evil.

We are tempted to see this as a sign that markets have now adopted a Fed policy that provides good visibility for its actions and gives the impression that the scenario has been regained control. It is clear that the discourse has changed profoundly: in a few months we have leftdon’t worry, there will be no increase in rates in the near future“on”Don’t worry, a rate increase of 50 basis points is the normHowever, this seems to be better understood. This decline in nervousness also illustrates the decline in the VIX volatility index and 10-year bond yields, which not only fell from their highs, but last night after the famous minute was released.

But let’s not get too carried away. This reprogramming of investors’ expectations does not mean that all parts of the financial sector have already adapted. Take business results, for example. The figures at the beginning of the year were in line with previous publishing seasons: companies exceeded analysts’ expectations. Expectations, which are too low as usual, because it is the companies themselves that lead them to numbers that they will be able to exceed just to reassure shareholders. This is for companies that have a classic calendar, ie aligned with the calendar year. In other words, 1ehm fiscal quarter corresponds to the period January, February, March. However, since last week, the numbers of companies whose financial year is unbeatable are published. They start with the exercise 1ehm February. We saw what this meant for distribution in the United States: Walmart, Target, and their acolytes displayed complicated tomorrows. Does this mean that the situation worsened significantly in April? Possible. In any case, neither the Nvidia nor Snowflake (which also started training in 1) last night seem immune:ehm February) showed a degree of caution and were sanctioned outside the meeting.

In the rest of the news, China’s economic dynamism is still worrying. Even internally, because Prime Minister Li Keqiang felt that the difficulties his country was going through were:in some respects and to some extent even more significant than in 2020, when the epidemic struck hard“China’s wake-up call is one of the variables that could get markets back on track, especially because it would help alleviate the shortfall that plagues supply chains. Investors will also be watching the US economic data expected this afternoon because the latest data has fallen short of expectations. If the number sporadically misses the consensus, it’s a coincidence, and when the data starts to multiply below expectations, it’s a trend.

To end positively, there are several European stocks that have caught the attention of Bank of America because they are high quality sets but were scrapped on the stock exchange in 2022. The bank specifically cites STMicroelectronics, Stellantis and AP Moller Maersk. In the same study I look at, it also provides six stocks in its coverage, for which it has most revised its earnings expectations over the next three years. These are upward revisions for Freenet, Repsol and Vesuvius and downward revisions for Elior, Alstom and Adidas. Let these few inspirations inspire you.

Stock markets are at least indecisive in Asia Pacific this morning. Australia, Hong Kong and Japan are down as I write, while Shanghai is up. When I started writing, European leading indicators were moving around balance. Now they tend to decline at opening, but within relatively narrow limits.

Economic highlights of the day

Three statistics in the United States: weekly unemployment benefit claims (2:30 p.m.), second quarterly GDP estimate (2:30 p.m.), and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (4:00 p.m.). The whole macro diary here.

The euro retreated slightly to $ 1.0699. An ounce of gold fell to $ 1850. Oil remains solid at North Sea Brent at $ 114.38 a barrel and US light oil WTI at $ 110.87. The yield on US 10-year debt is 2.75%, relatively stable. Bitcoin trades around $ 29,800.

Major changes in recommendations

  • Amadeus: AlphaValue remains to be reduced with a price target raised from 61.80 to EUR 62.80.
  • Ashtead: Jefferies remains for a long time with a reduced target price of 8,000 to 5,000 GBp.
  • Bakkavor: Berenberg remains with the price target reduced from 125 to 110 GBp.
  • Bodycote: Berenberg stays for a long time with a target price reduced from 1030 to 780 GBp.
  • Brenntag: Berenberg stays for a long time with the price target increased from 95 to 100 EUR.
  • Compagnie des Alpes: Berenberg remains on the purchase side with a price target increased from 21 to 22 EUR.
  • Data group: Baader Helvea is moving from sales to downsizing and targets EUR 69.
  • FirstGroup: Berenberg is starting to follow up on the purchase by focusing on 150GBp.
  • Galp Energia: RBC is moving from sector performance to better performance by focusing on € 16.
  • Swiss Re: Jefferies remains with the target price reduced from 90 to 82 CHF.

In France

Important (even less important) announcements

  • Vivendi holds 55.4% of Lagardère’s capital, but the actual takeover remains suspended until an opinion is issued by the Competition Authority.
  • Renault about the threat of mass action by thousands of owners of vehicles whose engines do not work.
  • The Brazilian Antimonopoly Office approves the acquisition of Grupo BIG by Carrefour.
  • Vinci will carry out development work for the three overhead stations of the future 18 Grand Paris Express line.
  • OVH signs partnerships with SpeechBrain and Mila to accelerate neural speech processing research.
  • The European Commission has approved the acquisition of Europcar.
  • Pierre & Vacances is continuing its restructuring process and has requested the initiation of an accelerated safeguard procedure.
  • Takeover offer for Generix
  • Philippe Mellier and Hervé Milcent increase their stake in the capital Solocal.
  • Geci spends € 0.5 million by issuing dilution ORNAns.
  • Derichebourg, Infotel have published their accounts.

In the world

Company results

  • Nvidia: after the projections, the event fell by 10% outside the session as expected.
  • Snowflake: Shares fell 14% off session after the release of mixed results and outlook.

Important (even less important) announcements

  • Nestlé is reportedly investigating the possibility of purchasing a GlaxoSmithKline consumer care unit.
  • Elon Musk increases the direct contribution to the purchase of Twitter to $ 33.5 billion by eliminating the financial line covered by Tesla securities.
  • Aramco allegedly approached Valvoline with a takeover request.
  • Apple raises basic salaries to address labor shortages.
  • Peter Thiel resigns from the Board of Directors of Meta Platforms with immediate effect.
  • Twitter will pay $ 150 million to end the FTC’s investigation into the use of user data.
  • TechnipFMC wins “significant” Halten East development contract from Equinor.
  • President JD Sports resigns. Chief Executive Officer and Interim President.
  • Main results of the day: Alibaba, Costco Wholesale, Medtronic, VMware, Dollar General, Marvell, Johnson Matthey… The whole agenda here.

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