Rising prices: The French must prepare for the worst

Rising prices: The French must prepare for the worst

According to an Allianz Trade study published this week, French spending could increase by € 224 per person in 2022 due to inflation. While the government is considering introducing food control and opposition to the “Robin Hood” plan, the French are looking for solutions to save on shopping.

The rise in prices recorded for several months and supported by the war in Ukraine, which triggered the energy and food crisis, does not seem to have stopped. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts in its latest report that inflation should be highest in emerging economies, where price inflation could average 8.7% this year, while in developed countries it should be 5.7%. In France, where inflation is lower than in some of our neighbors, such as Germany, INSEE measured that oil and industrial commodity prices fell in April 2022, but food commodity prices are dynamic. “Food commodity prices in euros slowed down, but rose again in April (+ 5.1% after + 9.2% in March). Prices of meat (+ 7.0% by + 8.6%) and seafood (+ 9.3% by + 10.4%) remained very dynamic. Prices of oilseeds slowed down significantly (+ 1.3% after + 22.0%), to a lesser extent the prices of cereals (+ 5.1% after + 11.5%) and sugar (+ 4.7% after + 8.1%) ). “, In detail the Institute.

The French, who have seen this increase in shopping, multiplying tricks to save, must prepare for difficult days. “Europe’s worst consumers are still waiting,” Allianz Trade, a credit insurance company, warned this week in a study on food inflation. “The rise in the price of agricultural food has not yet been fully reflected in the sales prices of food distributors. While producers in the European agri-food sector have increased their prices by + 14% since the beginning of 2021, food distributors have increased their prices by only + 6%. Less than half of the food price inflation observed in the upstream market was thus reflected in the prices at which these products are sold to final consumers, households, ”explains Allianz Trade.

Food distributor prices in France could increase by + 8.2%.

“In the face of the current situation with declining sales volumes and particularly high inflation, the profitability of European food retailers is under pressure. They will have no choice but to pass on this cost increase to their sales prices while trying to maintain their market share in a very competitive sector. For the end consumer, there is no doubt that the average basket price will continue to rise, ”explains Aurélien Duthoit, Allianz Trade’s sector adviser.

The effect of inflation on the food budget

The prices of European food distributors could thus increase by + 9.4% this year. “The German consumer will be among the most affected, with an increase in food distributor prices estimated at + 10.7% in 2022, and thus an increase in annual food expenditure estimated at + 254 euros per year. In France, food distributor prices could increase by + 8.2%, which would increase annual food spending by +244 euros per person this year, for a total of 2,963 euros, ”explains Aurélien Duthoit.

In the face of this sharp rise in prices, which is seriously undermining the purchasing power of households, governments are looking for a solution, all the more so as inflation has become a major problem for people around the world, according to Global Consumer Statistics. Survey (inflation is reported by 50% of respondents in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and more than 60% in Belgium).

In France, inflation is becoming an electoral issue for parliamentary elections

Several states have decided to respond by regulating the energy sector and taking supportive measures. Spain and Portugal have decided to extract gas and electricity prices from European mechanisms. In Germany, € 130 million has been released in subsidies for low-income households to reduce their energy bills. Olaf Scholz also set up a check for 100 euros to increase alimony and a monthly reduction in public transport to 9 euros. The United Kingdom unveiled a new £ 15bn aid package on Thursday to address the impact of living costs on disadvantaged households.

Rising inflation in France is directly attacking the legislative election campaign and is becoming a problem, especially between the presidential majority and the Union of the Left (Nupes).

The government, which has pledged 26 billion euros in spending since the autumn, is preparing for the end of June after the gas and electricity tariff shield, an additional increase of 100 euros from the energy control system or an 18 percent discount on fuel. – if the presidential majority is restored – an amending budget, which should lead in particular to the distribution of food control.

Plan of the Left Left “Robin Hood”.

The left union unveiled its purchasing power plan on Thursday, a bill that has already been drafted is ready to come into force immediately if Nupes wins the parliamentary elections. “The central idea is that inflation should pay for profits rather than wages, and to avoid contaminating inflation from one sector to another,” in particular by “blocking prices,” Jean-Luc Mélenchon explained.

In addition to raising Smic and pensions, revaluation of wages, freezing of basic necessities and rent control, banning power and gas outages and capping public transport prices. “It’s Robin Hood’s legal operation,” Mr. Mélenchon said.

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