This inflation, which the government will do everything to make it worse

This inflation, which the government will do everything to make it worse

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according to Hashtable.

The small numbers from INSEE are slowly accumulating, all pointing in the same direction: inflation is no longer negligible, still rising, and those who explained a few months ago that the growth observed at the end of 2021 was transient, very officially stuck their finger in the eye. We are coming to the middle of 2022, inflation is still rising and those on the shoulders continue to fall.

Over the last twelve months, the prices of pasta (+ 15%), frozen meat (+ 11%), flour (+ 10%), oils (+ 10%), mustard (+ 9%), coffee and dried fruit (+ 8%) have soared minced meat (+ 8%) or cooked meals (7%). Even more embarrassing: the trends observed during the supermarket negotiations for next quarter (summer 2022) could reach inflation in the coming months and exceed 5%. As a reminder, inflation observed in April would be 4.8%.

This increase is, of course, all the more acute for low-income consumers, who have no room to adjust their consumption, already cramped in a country where taxes, levies and over-regulation guarantee the power of particularly limited purchases. In particular, the savings of the French are being exploited, all the more so as their remuneration in the traditional accounts (passbook A, various savings plans totaling more than EUR 480 billion) is microscopic. and well below observed inflation.

At the beginning of the year, some more or less cheerfully stated that the extraordinary savings in France continued to grow in the last months of 2021, with € 165.8 billion saved in various media, according to data published by the Banque de France. France, ie a surplus of more than 55 billion euros imposed compared to the situation before the pandemic.

However, if the middle and wealthy strata still benefit from the savings that certain situations allow (reducing their spending on mobility, tourism, trips to restaurants or cinemas, for example), the situation is clearly different. working class who are starting to get hit and are now digging into their woolen stockings.

At the same time, the French growth we were told about before and during the presidential election campaign, when we found the country in good health, clearly marks the time: the French Economic Observatory’s (OFCE) forecasts now for 2022 were around 2, 7%, while last autumn the authorities boasted 4.2%. And yeah, no more beautiful numbers!

Moreover, and as the Allianz study suggests, this will not stop things: the increases currently observed are, in fact, only a reflection of the reductions in stocks and prices observed during and at the end of the year, essentially last year. The war and the new tensions in the supply chains, which have emerged since the beginning of the year, will not be reflected in prices in real terms until the following months, which may lead to an even sharper rise in food prices. According to Allianz, fats, flours, oils and the prices of these raw materials must increase by a further 10 to 25% to reflect the cost increases suffered by producers; in practice, if production costs were to relate 75% (or completely) to consumer prices, the French should expect inflation to be around 8.2% (or 11%).

For the now growing number of French “accurate to the euro”, such an increase means, more specifically, the victims and, consequently, a significant decline in their standard of living. For some, the difference between eating and ending a month is minus or even accumulating debt.

In this context, it is difficult to forget what happened at the end of 2018, when a spontaneous social movement developed after rising fuel prices, an increase that seems very modest today. At the time, the movement was largely dampened by police repression and government gestures, which provided an excellent idea of ​​the presidential substance or, more precisely, its glaring absence.

With a president who has shown no intellectual maturity and a government that has largely settled the same broken hands as in 2018, can we really hope that this sharp inflation and the rapid impoverishment of the French people will not lead to stronger social tensions?

This question will remain unanswered for weeks, maximum months, while Bruno Le Maire, the irreplaceable Minister of Economy (irreplaceable because no one wants to inherit the mess he has created), will start talking about his “solutions” for this desperate economic situation: he now urges companies to which may increase wages…

Yes, this is also the intellectual force in Bercy’s service: in the fight against rising prices, he therefore recommends raising the price of what is most expensive in companies in general, namely labor. It will be ok. By the way, we will be grateful to him for at least leaving companies with the appearance of choice, unlike the indelible leftists, such as François Ruffin, who in turn promote wage indexation by inflation, which is also not an inflationary factor at all.

Now, and regardless of the social movements that will (or will not) take place in the coming months, we can already outline the main economic lines that our clowns will follow without jerking: in the face of admitting a bitter failure that our clumsy Bruno will not miss. above all, not to introduce the usual ministerial scandals after a few quarters, the next step will be to block these rising prices. As we can guarantee on the invoice, the shortage that will soon appear or already exists in certain goods and services will then become endemic and the problem, already serious, will become unsolvable due to the “government touch” that distributes scrofula and converts gold to lead. .

What do you expect: when you only have a hammer to distribute the dough for free, all the economic problems look like nails, which you will therefore tap conscientiously in the only way you can.

Rejoice, allotment tickets are coming.

source: Hashtable

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