Very well-thought-out anti-encryption against the NUPES program –

Very well-thought-out anti-encryption against the NUPES program -

An allegedly critical estimate of our economic plan has been circulating in recent days. It presents itself as an original note of the Social-Liberal Foundation Terra Nova. This foundation is the one that in the past advised the Socialists to leave the working class and focus on the upper middle classes, which were considered more grateful and willing to mobilize for elections.

I created the following lines from data provided by the group of economists of the Union of the People. I think they will be useful to all who have to expect a renewal in the media in the usual way, that is, without any critical view or serious analysis of the substance of this “Terra Nova document.” So it will be easy to use it to ridicule those who resort to this kind of process. Because it’s great to show that those who confront us are not capable of a real point of view. If the opportunity arises, invite you to debate with our economic advisers or with me. It would be of great benefit if we could destroy their argument on a larger scale.

This Terra Nova note is signed by Guillaume Hannezo. The character is presented everywhere as “Mitterrand’s former adviser.” He certainly was in the early 90’s, but his life was completely different for a long time. Because then he had a beautiful and long career in finance, especially with Rothschild. He played his role in the sinking of Vivendi in early 2000 as CFO. He participated in the writing of the report “Public action 2022”, which was commissioned by Macron. This document will be considered too liberal by the government itself, which has resigned from its publication. But the most sad thing about this pathetic counteroffensive, allegedly seriously quantified, is the ridiculousness of the parameters used to build the demonstration.

Risky character

In fact, the Terra Nova report is not based on data that we have published ourselves, but on data from the Montaigne Institute. Remember that this “institute” was founded by the CEO of AXA. A number of ČAK 40 representatives take part in its scientific council. The Terra Nova documentary is therefore a commentary on another report rather than an original work. It does not perform any encryption on its own. Therefore, the choices made by the commentator are most often out of the question. It therefore does not take into account the crucial recipes set by our program. Neither those from the fight against tax evasion nor those resulting from our corporate tax reform. On the other hand, the Terra Nova / Institut Montaigne “cost calculation” allocates to us expenses that are not included in our program. So we did not decide to return to the top 10 years for calculating old-age pensions (instead of the current 25). We didn’t even opt for CSG with more than 5 slices, because our program provides 14 slices, which significantly smoothes the load in progressive mode.


The increase in public spending is 7 times higher than in 1981 »Says the so-called analyst. In fact, the increase in public spending is equivalent to Jacques Chirac’s five-year term in 2002-2007. We are talking about an increase of + 15%. Then, according to the same logic of “panic on board”, this remark speaks of ” 20% increase in income tax This figure is completely fabricated. Our 14-point scale corresponds to a 6% increase for the richest, as all revenues below € 4,000 individually will pay less than they do now. All serious analysts now acknowledge that public spending is having a positive impact on economic growth, with a split thousand euros that return € 1,300, which is called the “multiplier”, which is more than 1, according to Olivier Blanchard, the IMF’s chief economist at the time. in an article published in 2013. The Terra Nova report uses a multiplier of 0.8 without any basis, but this is because it retains a multiplier of less than 1 that it can derive the “catastrophic” effects of the shared Nupes program. retained for the AEC calculation is therefore much more relevant and important, while remaining modest.

Even more surprising. The author of the note believes that inflation is a monetary phenomenon. It also suggests that it will be the result of a loop where wages rise to catch up with prices. However, recent events prove the opposite. The ECB’s policy of massively injecting money into the banking sector (quantitative easing) has seen a very sharp increase in the money supply after more than two years. And without turning it into inflation. Current inflation has other sources. Especially when the supply chain is interrupted after the COVID episode. But above all, at its current stage, its root is in the price / profit loop. Too high profits and boundless speculation are really rampant, because companies now have almost unlimited power to set prices. To this is added the almost complete freedom of speculative financing.

False memory of 1981

To these background facts, which falsify all the assertions of Terra Nova’s remark, are added some arguments so biased that they can be attributed to intentional misconduct rather than reasoning. The author takes the pretext that debt / GDP and deficit / GDP levels are much higher today than in 1981 in order to disqualify the Nupes program. In short, it was less bad then than it is now. But we “forget” to say that the situations are also completely different. Since then, there has been increased financing for economies and austerity policies have multiplied. Moreover, it is the financial crises of 2008 and the health crises that created the largest share of public debt, and not generous public spending policies.

That’s not all. The comparison with 1981 is even more inefficient than it seems. The recovery in 1981 was decided when other neighboring economies introduced neoliberal policies to reduce local demand. Today, it would be absurd to intensify the introduction of neoliberalism when it has shown all its perverse effects. Especially when we are out of breath to meet the challenges of today and especially the needs of the environmental challenge that forces us to respond on a large scale. Let us add the last criticism of this comparison with the situation in 1981. Interest rates were very high at the time: 4%, taking into account French debt inflation. They are very low and even negative today: -2% taking into account inflation. Finally, let us say that comparing France with Greece, as this Terra Nova remark does, does not make sense, because the French economy occupies a position in the EU: 18% of the total, compared with 2% for Greece. This comparison is therefore invalid.

Finally, Terra Nova’s remark clearly predicts an increase in unemployment and a public deficit. This is partly based on the biased opinion adopted by the author. Everything for him is at the level of the price of things sold. Guillaume Hannezo and Terra Nova therefore believe that the increase in taxes and duties under the Nupes program leads to a dangerous increase in production costs for companies. However, it does not take into account the fact that these increases are accompanied by increases in revenue, and thus in demand, which the order books meet.

For us, the main difficulties of companies in the long run are on the side of insufficient demand rather than on the side of product supply. And it is the companies themselves that claim this in INSEE’s business trend surveys. And if that weren’t enough, concrete observations in Spain and Germany show that minimum wage growth has no negative effect on employment. On the contrary. However, the Terra Nova report believes that raising the minimum wage will have a negative effect. No shadow demonstration.

The reported disaster is an excuse

Note Terra Nova predicts financial attacks and a dramatic debt situation. we are smiling. The financial markets’ attack on French debt refinancing would spread to Spain and Italy. But to a lesser extent also to Greece and Portugal. If the eurozone’s 2nd, 3rd and 4th economies are under pressure, the ECB will be forced to act. Otherwise, there would be a risk of a systemic crisis, a eurozone explosion and the severe impact of bankruptcy, while 5 systemic banks are based in France. Who can want that? The ECB will not allow this risk to materialize, and the central bank has the tools to break down speculative attacks on states.

It will do so mainly because France, the bank’s shareholder, so requests. How ? By expanding its public debt repurchase policy. Or, as we suggest, by canceling the debt by converting it into perpetual debt at zero interest. Finally, several short- and medium-term measures can be considered to protect public debt from possible speculative attacks. First, by using the public banking sector to issue French public debt when markets are tense. Then by increasing the level of government debt held by components of the public banking sector. And, if necessary, even by mobilizing abundant and mobilizable cash, when it is, from public and public companies and institutions. Finally, by introducing minimum limits for holding French national debt to private banks and insurance companies operating in France. All these means are a crisis solution.

Unless the financial sector hears or respects the message of caution, its implementation will not be weak. To this are added other equally drastic crisis measures, which can be mobilized in a short time. Like the reform of sovereign debt issues, by forcing major private banks to participate (free of charge) in issues and by being subject to purchase limits. Terra Nova’s comedy is not in this play with the characters, nor in its evil faith, not even in its catastrophe. There is no doubt that we are fully aware of the fact that we are not thinking from the same framework. And that we learned nothing about the utter unproductivity of Tsipras’s government under German-French dictatorship. The economy is a service area of ​​human needs for us. To satisfy them, we are determined not to accept the orders of any sacred cow.

Arched zero balance of real macronism

Especially with regard to the service records of the model that is against us. As a reminder, here are figures on managerial performance in Macron’s first five-year term. He himself increased public debt by 600 billion euros. And it has depleted the public coffers by 48 billion euros a year. With what he has planned for his second five-year term, a loss of 54 billion a year is announced. Note: this is the equivalent of the Nupes Environmental Bifurcation Investment Plan.

It is important to recall here that our calculation has been compared with the Banque de France analytical model. According to this model, expenditure forecasts and their allocations bring a positive result. For 250 billion expenses, it generates 267 billion in revenue. So the profit balance. In particular, it creates 1.5 million more private jobs. Terra Nova is careful not to indicate what the austerity treatment her report recommends would bring to public accounts and employment in the country.

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