Why should Medvedev get back first place from Djokovic in the coming weeks

Why should Medvedev get back first place from Djokovic in the coming weeks


Paradoxically, Wimbledon’s initial decision to expel Russia and Belarus should suit Daniil Medvedev. He will not take part in the third round of the grand slam this year due to his country’s invasion of Ukraine. But at the end of the tournament, he could win first place in the world or consolidate it if he became the boss again by then. The ATP decided not to award points during the London tournament, which will severely punish the current number one: Novak Djokovic.

The Serb, who currently leads Medvedev in the ATP rankings, won Wimbledon last year and will lose 2,000 points. The Russian had the fallen eighth, he has only 180 points to return. Losing will be much less cruel for him and that will be the difference. Nole’s 880-point lead in the ATP rankings will disappear. If we apply the expected fluctuations in advance, Medvedev has practically 1140 units more than his rival.

But before he thinks about Wimbledon, Medvedev will have the opportunity to take the lead regularly during the French Open. Different scenarios are possible, but only one depends entirely on him: if he reaches the final of the Porte d’Auteuil, the Russian is guaranteed to become number one again. This is regardless of the performance of “Nole”, who will not be able to earn points in Paris as a defending champion, while his competitor can improve his score last year (380).

Seeing the Moscow climb to the finals is not unthinkable when you know he is at the bottom of the table. Nevertheless, he will have to reach his best Roland, who passed the first round only once last year, when he fell on Tsitsipase in the quarterfinals. Without forgetting that clay is far from his favorite surface and that he made a chipped product.

Novak Djokovic has no choice. He must at least go to the finals to stay on top of the world at the end of the fortnight in Paris. Two options would then allow him to stay in the lead: if he loses in the final, Medvedev must not go further than eighth. If Roland-Garros wins, Medvedev must not go halfway. Any other result would remove him from the position of circuit leader.

Djokovic can score 1250 points between Roland-Garros and Wimbledon

It remains to be seen whether these two men will score points in the three weeks that will separate the two grand slam deadlines. The Queen’s (ATP 500) and Eastbourne (ATP 250) grass tournaments retain their prizes. Novak Djokovic, who did not play a single match in this period last year, can aim for 1000 points (two ATP 250 and ATP 500). The recent finalist of the Australian Open must defend 250 points for his title in Mallorca in 2021.

At best, “Djoko” can get back 1250 points between Paris and London. To do so, he would have to enter three competitions, which seems unlikely and to win them, but also for Medvedev to skip all the tournaments, which he does not intend to do. In short, if Medvedev does not overtake Djokovic in France, he will certainly do so during or at the end of the grassy season.

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